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USL Race for the Playoffs – Sept. 26-30

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/27/18, 12:58PM EDT

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Midweek victories shake up Eastern race ahead of crucial games in both conferences


Photo courtesy Sam Ortega / Portland Timbers 2

Updated: Thursday, September 27 at 1 p.m. ET

While FC Cincinnati was celebrating its USL Regular Season Championship on Wednesday night, there were other celebrations going on in the Eastern Conference as Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC became the third side to claim its place in the postseason and the Charleston Battery put one foot in the doorway thanks to hard-fought rivalry victories. There’s more drama to come this weekend, however, with big games featuring across both conferences in the battle to either secure a place in the USL Cup Playoffs or claim homefield advantage in each conference.

References: FiveThirtyEight.com Playoff Projections

THREE KEY GAMES

Saturday, Sept. 29 – Phoenix Rising FC vs. Saint Louis FC
The clash at the Phoenix Rising Soccer Complex could be a preview of a matchup in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, but that won’t be at the forefront as Rising FC looks to pull back within a point of Orange County SC at the top of the conference standings and Saint Louis looks to seal its first trip to the postseason. That said, with Phoenix having claimed a 3-1 victory when it visited STLFC earlier this season – the last defeat Saint Louis suffered on home turf – the second meeting of the season certainly could have a playoff feel to it in front of what will likely be another raucous atmosphere.

Saturday, Sept. 29 – Sacramento Republic FC vs. Portland Timbers 2
Both Republic FC and T2 have clinched their playoff berths, but the showdown at Papa Murphy’s Park could realistically determine which side will open the USL Cup Playoffs at home and which will have to travel. Fourth-place Republic FC is in the stronger position entering the contest as it not only holds a one-point edge on fifth-place Portland but also holds a game in hand. Though after T2’s 2-0 victory when the teams met earlier this season, the visitors will enter with confidence and look to use their counterattack to positive effect and jump into the top four.

Sunday, Sept. 30 – Ottawa Fury FC vs. Bethlehem Steel FC
Ottawa claimed its third win in its last four outings on Wednesday night to remain in seventh position in the Eastern Conference, but the club’s playoff hopes could be on a knife-edge on Sunday afternoon with only two games to go in the regular season. Victory for Fury FC will ensure it remains in with a chance at the playoffs, but it’s conceivable that the side could be eliminated from playoff contention before it takes to the field for its final game against the Charleston Battery on October 13 with a loss. With Steel FC one point ahead of Ottawa entering the contest, it would put itself out of reach of Fury FC if it can replicate the 2-0 victory it took at Goodman Stadium when the teams last met on August 22.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. FC Cincinnati
Current Record:
 22-3-6, 72pts
Maximum Points Available: 81
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 27%
Last Game: W 4-1 at Richmond Kickers
Next Game: 9/29 vs. Indy Eleven, 7:30 p.m. ET
With the USL Regular Season Championship in hand, FC Cincinnati is now playing for the record book, with the next potential mark it can claim arriving on Saturday night as it looks for a 10th consecutive victory when Indy Eleven arrives at Nippert Stadium for the club’s regular-season home finale. Achieve that, and the 22-game undefeated streak held by the Richmond Kickers from the 2013 season becomes the final regular-season goal over its last two games.

2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Current Record:
 15-4-11, 56pts
Maximum Points Available: 68
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 9%
Last Game: W 2-0 at Penn FC
Next Game: 9/29 at Charlotte Independence, 7 p.m. ET
Riverhounds SC claimed its place in the postseason for a fifth time and the Keystone Derby Cup for a third with its victory against Penn FC on Wednesday night and is now in position to take a top-two finish. It will need to get past a Charlotte Independence side that is facing mathematical elimination on Saturday night, however, if it’s to retain its advantage over third-place Louisville City FC.

3. Louisville City FC
Current Record:
 16-6-9, 54pts
Maximum Points Available: 66
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 11%
Last Game: W 4-0 vs. Ottawa Fury FC
Next Game: 9/29 at ATL UTD 2, 7 p.m. ET
Louisville slipped to third place behind Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC after the Hounds’ victory against Penn FC on Wednesday night and will enter its contest with Atlanta aiming for three points to keep the pressure on the Hounds as they visit a Charlotte Independence side that sees its playoff chances hanging by a thread.

4. Charleston Battery
Current Record:
 13-4-14, 53pts
Maximum Points Available: 62
Points Needed to Clinch: 1
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: >99%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 4%
Last Game: W 2-0 vs. North Carolina FC
Next Game: 9/29 vs. Toronto FC II, 7 p.m. ET
The Battery technically still need a point to claim their eighth consecutive trip to the USL Cup Playoffs, but as Head Coach Mike Anhaeuser said after Wednesday’s victory against North Carolina FC, “you know what, I’m going to say we’re in.” Charleston couldn’t have left it much later than it did against its Southern Derby rival with two stoppage-time goals to earn all three points, but with victory it left itself in position to take advantage should either Pittsburgh or Louisville slip up on Saturday night.

5. Indy Eleven
Current Record:
 13-9-9, 48pts
Maximum Points Available: 57
Points Needed to Clinch: 6
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 96%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 1%
Last Game: W 2-0 vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Next Game: 9/29 at FC Cincinnati, 7:30 p.m. ET
Clutch finishing by Karl Ouimette and Elliot Collier and clutch goalkeeping by Owain Fôn Williams led Indy to a massive victory against the Tampa Bay Rowdies that pushed the side back into fifth place. With two wins needed from the three games, the Eleven will get the chance to spoil the party for FC Cincinnati on Saturday night when it looks to close in on a postseason berth.

6. Bethlehem Steel FC
Current Record:
 13-12-6, 45pts
Maximum Points Available: 54
Points Needed to Clinch: 9
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 83%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 1%
Last Game: W 4-0 vs. Toronto FC II
Next Game: 9/30 at Ottawa Fury FC, 1 p.m. ET
Bethlehem slipped a spot thanks to Indy Eleven’s victory, but that didn’t really matter much in the big picture as the defeats for North Carolina FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies were results that helped Steel FC more. Much more important, however, is the club’s visit to Ottawa Fury FC on Sunday in which a victory would not only move Bethlehem that much closer to a playoff place but also eliminate the threat of one of the sides looking to overtake it.

7. Ottawa Fury FC
Current Record:
 13-14-5, 44pts
Maximum Points Available: 50
Points Needed to Clinch: 10
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 34%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: W 1-0 at Toronto FC II
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Bethlehem Steel FC, 1 p.m. ET
Ottawa fought hard for its victory on Wednesday night against Toronto FC II, but is still far from secure in its position with only two games to go in the regular season. If it takes victory against Bethlehem, which would move Fury FC past Steel FC in the standings, the side can look forward to a home finale against the Charleston Battery with the hope it will still be in contention on October 13. If it fails to take victory, however, the odds are Ottawa could be mathematically eliminated before it takes to the field again.

8. Nashville SC
Current Record: 
11-8-10, 43pts
Maximum Points Available: 55
Points Needed to Clinch: 11
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 83%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: W 2-0 at ATL UTD 2
Next Game: 9/29 vs. New York Red Bulls II, 8:30 p.m. ET
The only thing that could have gone better for Nashville on Wednesday night was Toronto FC II taking points off Ottawa Fury FC, but thanks to NSC’s victory against ATL UTD 2 and defeats for North Carolina FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies things are looking set fair once again for a postseason spot. Adding a second consecutive victory back on home turf this Saturday against the New York Red Bulls II would only add to the renewal of confidence the side should be feeling, but another slip-up would add pressure to the club’s next two games against the Richmond Kickers and Toronto FC II that it should be confident of winning.

9. New York Red Bulls II
Current Record:
 10-8-12, 42pts
Maximum Points Available: 54
Points Needed to Clinch: 12
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 37%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: D 1-1 at Charlotte Independence
Next Game: 9/29 at Nashville SC, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Red Bulls II are among the top eight teams in available points in the Eastern Conference after North Carolina FC’s capitulation against the Charleston Battery, but that won’t mean very much if New York can’t figure out a way to win on the road down the stretch. A visit to Nashville on Saturday is arguably the biggest game this weekend outside the three listed above, and a win would push the Red Bulls II back past NSC in the standings with three games to go in the regular season.

10. North Carolina FC
Current Record:
 11-11-8, 41pts
Maximum Points Available: 53
Points Needed to Clinch: 13
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 54%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 2-0 at Charleston Battery
Next Game: 9/29 vs. Richmond Kickers, 7 p.m. ET
After having an awful lot go right this past weekend, a decent amount went wrong for North Carolina on Wednesday, most significantly in its own contest where a missed attempted Panenka penalty kick by Zach Steinberger was exacerbated by conceding two stoppage-time goals to lose in dramatic fashion to the Charleston Battery. The good news for North Carolina is that it has a great chance to return to the win column when the Richmond Kickers visit Sahlen’s Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park, but three points are essential on Saturday after the side’s midweek meltdown.

11. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Current Record:
 11-13-7, 40pts
Maximum Points Available: 49
Points Needed to Clinch: 14
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 12%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 2-0 at Indy Eleven
Next Game: 10/3 at ATL UTD 2, 7 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay was thwarted by a strong defensive display by Indy Eleven on Wednesday night and will now have to sit back and wait to see what happens this weekend around the rest of the conference’s playoff contenders. Realistically, though, the Rowdies probably have to win out to have a chance, but that’s not necessarily unfeasible with contests against ATL UTD 2 on the road and the Charlotte Independence at home up next before what could be a season-defining showdown against Bethlehem Steel FC on the final day of the regular season.

12. Charlotte Independence
Current Record:
 9-11-10, 37pts
Maximum Points Available: 49
Points Needed to Clinch: 17
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 1%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: D 1-1 vs. New York Red Bulls II
Next Game: 9/29 vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, 7 p.m. ET
The Independence are in make-or-break mode after Wednesday’s results, which means victory against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday night is essential to keeping their playoff hopes alive. Defeat, on the other hand, would effectively mean the end of the road for Charlotte’s playoff pursuit.

13. Penn FC
Current Record:
 9-13-8, 35pts
Maximum Points Available: 44
Points Needed to Clinch: 19
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: <1%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 2-0 vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Next Game: 10/3 vs. Charlotte Independence, 6:30 p.m. ET
Penn’s defeat against Keystone Derby Cup rival Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Wednesday night left the side on the brink, and it could be mathematically eliminated this weekend before it takes to the field again next Wednesday against the Charlotte Independence. 

Officially Eliminated: ATL UTD 2, Richmond Kickers, Toronto FC II

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Orange County SC
Current Record:
 19-7-6, 63pts
Maximum Points Available: 69
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 14%
Last Game: W 5-3 at Las Vegas Lights FC
Next Game: 10/6 vs. Seattle Sounders FC 2, 10 p.m. ET
A fourth consecutive victory, and second consecutive five-goal outing, saw Orange County keep the pressure on Phoenix Rising FC to match its outstanding form as the sides duel for top spot in the Western Conference. Orange County will now see Phoenix make up one of its two games in hand on Saturday while hoping that Saint Louis FC can take points from its visit to the Phoenix Rising Soccer Complex. 

2. Phoenix Rising FC
Current Record: 
18-7-5, 59pts
Maximum Points Available: 71
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 18%
Last Game: W 2-1 at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Next Game: 9/29 vs. Saint Louis FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
Phoenix fans and players probably felt the rollercoaster ride that was Wednesday night’s eventual Orange County SC victory against Las Vegas Lights FC more than most, but now the pressure is back on to match OCSC’s victory to keep in position to claim top spot at the end of the regular season. That may not be an easy task against Saint Louis FC, which is undefeated in its last four and has taken victory in three of those, but the side should be able to pull from the memory of its 3-1 victory when it visited Toyota Stadium – Saint Louis as it returns for its first home game since September 5.

3. Real Monarchs SLC
Current Record:
 17-11-3, 54pts
Maximum Points Available: 63
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 2%
Last Game: L 6-1 at LA Galaxy II
Next Game: 9/29 vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, 9 p.m. ET
The Monarchs saw their chances of finishing top of the Western Conference slide away on Wednesday night as they can now only match Orange County in points with wins in their last three games, but taking victory at home to get the side back on track to host at least one playoff game this Saturday against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC should be the main focus. Real hasn’t won in more than a month, its last victory coming against the LA Galaxy II on August 25, and the Switchbacks handed the Monarchs a 1-0 defeat when they last met at Weidner Field on August 29 in the first game of Real’s current six-game winless streak.

4. Sacramento Republic FC
Current Record:
 15-7-8, 53pts
Maximum Points Available: 65
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 4%
Last Game: D 0-0 vs. OKC Energy FC
Next Game: 9/29 vs. Portland Timbers 2, 10:30 p.m. ET
Sacramento clinched its place in the postseason with its draw on Sunday evening against OKC Energy FC, but missed out on the chance to move into the top three with a victory past faltering Real Monarchs SLC. It now gets one of the biggest games of the week with the fifth-place Portland Timbers 2 coming to Papa Murphy’s Park, a game that will be a determining factor as to which side will be looking at a potential top-three finish and which may have to start its postseason campaign on the road.

5. Portland Timbers 2
Current Record: 
16-11-4, 52pts
Maximum Points Available: 61
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 2%
Last Game: D 2-2 at Fresno FC
Next Game: 9/29 at Sacramento Republic FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
Portland is going to the postseason for the first time, but will be disappointed to have let points slip away as it conceded a late equalizer against Fresno FC on Saturday night. That could prove the difference between a top-four finish and starting the USL Cup Playoffs on the road, unless T2 can find a road win against fourth-place Sacramento Republic FC this Saturday night. Victory at Papa Murphy’s Park could open up a path to a third-place finish by the end of the regular season, although it will be a tough road with games against Reno 1868 FC and Phoenix Rising FC to follow.

6. Swope Park Rangers
Current Record:
 14-10-8, 50pts
Maximum Points Available: 56
Points Needed to Clinch: 3
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 88%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: D 1-1 at Tulsa Roughnecks FC
Next Game: 10/3 at Sacramento Republic FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
Swope Park needs just three points from its final two games of the regular season, and would clinch its playoff spot before it takes to the field next week against Sacramento Republic FC should San Antonio fall to Seattle Sounders FC 2 on Saturday night.

7. Reno 1868 FC
Current Record:
 13-7-10, 49pts
Maximum Points Available: 61
Points Needed to Clinch: 4
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 97%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 3%
Last Game: W 4-0 vs. Rio Grande Valley FC
Next Game: 9/29 vs. Tulsa Roughnecks FC, 10 p.m. ET
Reno got the victory it needed to move one step closer to a playoff place, and could earn that spot with a victory on Saturday against Tulsa Roughnecks FC should San Antonio fail to take victory against Seattle Sounders FC 2. Should Reno be held to a draw, it would need San Antonio to fall to S2 to claim its place in the playoffs, but if 1868 FC doesn’t get the results it needs on Saturday it would have three games remaining against the Portland Timbers 2, Phoenix Rising FC and Orange County to get the points it needs to move clear of San Antonio FC and into the playoffs.

8. Saint Louis FC
Current Record:
 13-8-10, 49pts
Maximum Points Available: 58
Points Needed to Clinch: 4
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 95%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 2%
Last Game: W 2-0 vs. San Antonio FC
Next Game: 9/29 at Phoenix Rising FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
Saint Louis put one foot in the USL Cup Playoffs with its victory on Saturday night against San Antonio FC, but still has a little work to do to wrap things up. The club’s visit to Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday offers its first chance to clinch. Should STLFC take victory, it would also need San Antonio to either draw or lose to Seattle Sounders FC 2 on Saturday night. Should STLFC earn a draw, it would need San Antonio to lose to S2 to claim its spot.

9. San Antonio FC
Current Record: 
11-12-7, 43pts
Maximum Points Available: 52
Points Needed to Clinch: 10
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 20%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 2-0 at Saint Louis FC
Next Game: vs. Seattle Sounders FC 2, 8:30 p.m. ET
San Antonio’s back is further against the wall after Reno’s victory on Wednesday night against Rio Grande Valley FC, and it would likely see its playoff hopes evaporate completely should it fall to Seattle Sounders FC 2 on Saturday night. Even with a win, though, it would need plenty of help the rest of the way for Reno, Swope Park and Saint Louis to miss out on the remaining points they need to get to 53 and officially eliminate SAFC from contention.

Officially eliminated: OKC Energy FC, LA Galaxy II, Fresno FC, Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, Las Vegas Lights FC, Rio Grande Valley FC, Seattle Sounders FC 2, Tulsa Roughnecks FC

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