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USL Race for the Playoffs – Sept. 18-23

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/20/18, 1:14PM EDT

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Contests featuring San Antonio, Bethlehem hold key to clinching scenarios over weekend


Saint Louis FC and San Antonio FC square off on Saturday night in a crucial game in the bigger Western Conference picture. | Photo courtesy Darren Abate / San Antonio FC

Updated Thursday, September 20, 1 p.m. ET

After some major movement and results in the past two days, focus switches to this weekend’s action where one game in either conference holds the key to whether multiple teams will be able to clinch their place in the postseason on Saturday and Sunday night. Three teams are officially in now, but that could more than double by Monday morning’s arrival.

References: FiveThirtyEight.com Playoff Projections

THREE KEY GAMES

Saturday, Sept. 22 – Bethlehem Steel FC vs. Toronto FC II
The opening game on Saturday, a 3 p.m. ET kickoff at Goodman Stadium, not only will play a major role in whether Steel FC gets the chance to return to the postseason but also whether the door will open for Louisville City FC, Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and the Charleston Battery to claim their playoff berths. Sitting in sixth to start the week, though, Bethlehem needs all three points to stave off the chasing pack and their games in hand.

Saturday, Sept. 22 – Nashville SC vs. Charleston Battery
Coming off its loss on Tuesday night against Tampa Bay, Nashville will want to get back in the win column as it plays host to the Battery, who will know by the time of kickoff whether a playoff place is within reach with a victory. After the counterattacking style employed by the Rowdies, though, Nashville should expect more of the same for the Battery, who have averaged just 42.44 percent possession this season on the road to another postseason berth.

Saturday, Sept. 22 – Saint Louis FC vs. San Antonio FC
San Antonio’s loss on Wednesday night to the Swope Park Rangers makes this a must-win game for the visitors to Toyota Stadium – Saint Louis, while the hosts could put a major nail in SAFC’s playoff chances should it take all three points. Both the Portland Timbers 2 and Sacramento Republic FC would be happy enough with a draw, however, which would allow both sides to clinch their place in the postseason with a win on Saturday as T2 visits Fresno FC and Sunday as Sacramento visits OKC Energy FC.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. FC Cincinnati
Current Record:
 20-3-6, 66pts
Maximum Points Available: 81
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 27%
Last Game: W 4-3 vs. Toronto FC II
Next Game: 9/22 at Penn FC, 7 p.m. ET
Orange County’s victory on Wednesday night against Real Monarchs SLC meant FCC can’t quite claim the USL Regular Season Championship this Saturday, with OCSC still able to reach 21 wins and 69 points should it win out. In a way, though, that could make the next week a fun one for Cincinnati’s fans as the club heads on the road. Victory against Penn FC would equal the New York Red Bulls II’s regular-season record of 21 wins and 69 points, while also keeping the club’s chances of setting new regular-season marks for consecutive victories, and consecutive games without defeat alive. That would in turn mean FCC could clinch the regular season title while setting new league records for wins and points while tying the league record for consecutive wins next Wednesday against the Richmond Kickers, whose 22-game undefeated streak in 2013 would then become the final target for the club’s regular-season goals.

2. Louisville City FC
Current Record:
 15-6-9, 51pts
Maximum Points Available: 66
Points Needed to Clinch: 4
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: >99%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 10%
Last Game: W 3-0 at Penn FC
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Ottawa Fury FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
Louisville jumped into second place with its victory against Penn FC on Wednesday night and can claim its place in the playoffs with victory against Ottawa Fury FC this Saturday as it looks to break a five-game winless streak at Slugger Field should Bethlehem Steel FC miss out on victory against Toronto FC II earlier in the day. Sitting as a 36 percent chance for a second-place finish currently, it could also be hoping for some help from Indy Eleven to take points off Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC as the battle for a top-two seed looks likely to come down to the wire.

3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Current Record:
 13-4-11, 50pts
Maximum Points Available: 68
Points Needed to Clinch: 5
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: >99%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 7%
Last Game: D 2-2 vs. Louisville City FC
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Indy Eleven, 7 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh dropped a position on Wednesday night thanks to Louisville’s victory against Penn FC, but that and the Charleston Battery’s draw with the Charlotte Independence also helped the side close in on its playoff berth as it hosts Indy Eleven on Saturday. Should Bethlehem Steel FC and Ottawa Fury FC both fail to take victory on Saturday, Pittsburgh would clinch its first playoff berth since 2015 and its fourth overall with a victory against the Eleven and keep a beat on second place at the end of the season with a game in hand on LouCity. 

4. Charleston Battery
Current Record:
 12-4-13, 49pts
Maximum Points Available: 64
Points Needed to Clinch: 6
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: >99%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 4%
Last Game: D 1-1 vs. Charlotte Independence
Next Game: 9/22 at Nashville SC, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Battery were unable to leapfrog Pittsburgh as well after being held to a 1-1 draw by the Charlotte Independence on Wednesday night, but they can still claim a place in the postseason on Saturday with a victory on the road against Nashville SC. Their route is a little more of a longshot than Louisville or Pittsburgh, however, as Charleston would need Bethlehem Steel FC to fall against Toronto FC II in addition to both Ottawa Fury FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies dropping points in their respective games on Saturday night to remain the only side to reach the postseason in every year of the USL’s modern era.

5. Indy Eleven
Current Record:
 12-8-9, 45pts
Maximum Points Available: 60
Points Needed to Clinch: 10
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 87%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 1%
Last Game: L 1-0 at Penn FC
Next Game: 9/22 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, 7 p.m. ET
Indy will have been enthused by the Charleston Battery’s draw on Wednesday night which keeps its hope of a top-four finish alive, even if it does need to make up a four-point gap in the final five games of the regular season. A visit to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday is going to be a tough test for the Eleven, though, especially since the Hounds could have the added motivation of knowing before kickoff whether a win would clinch a playoff place in front of their fans.

6. Bethlehem Steel FC
Current Record:
 12-12-6, 42pts
Maximum Points Available: 54
Points Needed to Clinch: 13
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 76%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 1%
Last Game: L 4-1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Toronto FC II, 3 p.m. ET
With its mid-afternoon kickoff, there are going to be plenty of interested viewers tuning into Bethlehem’s game with Toronto FC II on Saturday hoping for the road side to at least claim a draw, if not a win. Steel FC can extend the wait for a playoff place for the likes of Louisville and Pittsburgh a little longer with a victory, but far more importantly Bethlehem needs a win to keep itself ahead of the pack and will then be hoping to see those below it like Ottawa and Nashville drop points later in the evening to rebuild a small cushion in the standings.

7. Ottawa Fury FC
Current Record:
 12-13-5, 41pts
Maximum Points Available: 53
Points Needed to Clinch: 14
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 31%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: W 2-0 at Richmond Kickers
Next Game: 9/22 at Louisville City FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
Two consecutive victories have put Ottawa back into the playoff positions ahead of the most difficult on paper of its remaining four contests in a trip to face Louisville City FC on Saturday. If Fury FC can find a way to take a point from the game it could still be in decent shape by the time the dust settles on Sunday morning, but the team and its fans will likely be doing a lot of scoreboard-watching as to what else is going on over the course of Saturday night.

8. New York Red Bulls II
Current Record:
 10-8-11, 41pts
Maximum Points Available: 56
Points Needed to Clinch: 14
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 51%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: D 3-3 vs. Toronto FC II
Next Game: 9/22 at Charlotte Independence, 7 p.m. ET
Mathematically, the Red Bulls II are still in the top eight when it comes to points available in the Eastern Conference, but with the side facing four of its final five games on the road the projection model isn’t exactly optimistic given the fact that New York has yet to win on the road this season. Changing that this Saturday in Charlotte would be a massive boost, especially with the Independence being one of the sides New York is going to have to fend off for a postseason berth.

9. Nashville SC
Current Record:
 10-8-9, 39pts
Maximum Points Available: 57
Points Needed to Clinch: 16
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 69%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 2-1 vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Charleston Battery, 8:30 p.m. ET
Nashville’s loss to Tampa Bay – its second in the past three outings at First Tennessee Park – shouldn’t set off too many alarm bells, but there’s another test arriving on Saturday in the form of the Charleston Battery, whose counterattacking style is one that could pose NSC difficulty. Nashville should still be in good shape for a playoff berth, but with only one win the club’s last five outings the nerves could start jangling a bit if it doesn’t find all three points against the Battery.

10. North Carolina FC
Current Record:
 10-10-8, 38pts
Maximum Points Available: 56
Points Needed to Clinch: 17
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 51%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: W 1-0 at Penn FC
Next Game: 9/21 at ATL UTD 2, 7 p.m. ET
North Carolina would have been pleased by most of the midweek action, especially the defeats to Nashville and Penn FC that saw two of the sides it is battling for a postseason spot fail to pick up any points. Friday night’s game with Atlanta could be tricky, but if NCFC picks up all three points it will put more pressure on the teams around it to produce a matching result the following night.

11. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Current Record:
 10-12-7, 37pts
Maximum Points Available: 52
Points Needed to Clinch: 18
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 26%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: W 2-1 at Nashville SC
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Richmond Kickers, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Rowdies’ biggest road victory of the season against Nashville on Tuesday night continued to keep hope alive within Tampa Bay’s camp, and should the side claim a third consecutive victory this Saturday when the Richmond Kickers visit Al Lang Stadium, a path the playoffs could start to emerge. The Rowdies will be hoping the top four can lend a hand as well as it looks for victories by Louisville City FC against Ottawa Fury FC and the Charleston Battery against Nashville SC.

12. Charlotte Independence
Current Record:
 9-11-9, 36pts
Maximum Points Available: 51
Points Needed to Clinch: 19
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 4%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: D 1-1 at Charleston Battery
Next Game: 9/22 vs. New York Red Bulls II, 7 p.m. ET
A comeback for a point against the Charleston Battery was a nice standalone result for the Independence, but it really didn’t do anything to move the needle for the side in its pursuit of a playoff place. Saturday’s game with the New York Red Bulls II may now be more important to the sides closely surrounding eighth-place New York than it is for the Independence’s own playoff hopes.

13. Penn FC
Current Record:
 9-11-8, 35pts
Maximum Points Available: 50
Points Needed to Clinch: 20
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 5%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 3-0 vs. Louisville City FC
Next Game: 9/22 vs. FC Cincinnati, 7 p.m. ET
Penn’s second consecutive defeat on Wednesday night against Louisville City FC saw its playoff prospects plummet, and it gets no easier with FC Cincinnati the visitors on Saturday to FNB Field. If Penn misses out on victory there, it’s going to be an awfully long road back to the playoff line, especially if the teams above it add to the gap the side is going to need to make up.

14. ATL UTD 2
Current Record:
 5-14-8, 23pts
Maximum Points Available: 44
Points Needed to Clinch: 32
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: <1%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 1-0 at Tampa Bay Rowdies
Next Game: 9/21 vs. North Carolina FC, 7 p.m. ET
Atlanta can’t be mathematically eliminated by the time it takes the field on Friday night, and there are plenty of teams out there hoping it can take points off North Carolina FC on home turf at Coolray Field, but at this point it’s just a matter of time before the playoffs are officially out of reach. 

Officially Eliminated: Richmond Kickers, Toronto FC II

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Orange County SC
Current Record:
 18-7-6, 60pts
Maximum Points Available: 69
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 15%
Last Game: W 5-2 vs. Real Monarchs SLC
Next Game: 9/26 at Las Vegas Lights FC, 11 p.m. ET
Orange County has now played two more games than fellow postseason qualifier Phoenix Rising FC, but with its 5-2 victory against third-place Real Monarchs SLC on Wednesday the side not only made it a de facto two-horse race for first place but also put pressure on Phoenix to win both of its games in hand to regain the top spot. This weekend OCSC gets to watch the scoreboard, and hope Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC hands it a favor as Rising FC visits Weidner Field.

2. Phoenix Rising FC
Current Record:
 17-7-5, 56pts
Maximum Points Available: 71
Points Needed to Clinch: Clinched
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 18%
Last Game: W 1-0 at Seattle Sounders FC 2
Next Game: 9/22 at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, 8 p.m. ET
Phoenix was the second-most disappointed team with Wednesday night’s outcome between Orange County SC and Real Monarchs SLC after the Monarchs, and now goes into Saturday’s game against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC needing victory to keep pace with OCSC at the top of the standings ahead of a run of three home games out of four to close out the regular season.

3. Real Monarchs SLC
Current Record:
 17-10-3, 54pts
Maximum Points Available: 66
Points Needed to Clinch: 1
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: >99%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 4%
Last Game: L 5-2 at Orange County SC
Next Game: 9/22 at LA Galaxy II, 10:30 p.m. ET
The Monarchs are still going to make the playoffs, they don’t even need to gain a point themselves against the Galaxy II this Saturday if San Antonio fails to take victory against Saint Louis earlier in the evening, but the downturn in form right now doesn’t bode well for the postseason when it arrives. There’s even a chance if this slide continues they could finish outside the top four with both Sacramento and the Portland Timbers 2 gaining ground.

4. Sacramento Republic FC
Current Record:
 15-7-7, 52pts
Maximum Points Available: 67
Points Needed to Clinch: 4
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: >99%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 4%
Last Game: W 4-1 at Tulsa Roughnecks FC
Next Game: 9/23 at OKC Energy FC, 7 p.m. ET
Sacramento’s victory against Tulsa Roughnecks FC on Wednesday night put it on the doorstep of a fifth consecutive playoff berth, and it will know if it has a chance to clinch its place in the postseason by the end of Saturday night depending on how San Antonio FC fares against Saint Louis FC. Should SAFC draw with Saint Louis, Sacramento would need to take victory to earn its place since it wouldn’t quite hold the total wins tiebreaker over San Antonio with three games remaining. But a win should be the goal for Sacramento regardless given the Monarchs’ downturn, which has opened a chance for Republic FC to potentially claim a top-three finish should it end the season strongly.

5. Portland Timbers 2
Current Record:
 16-11-3, 51pts
Maximum Points Available: 63
Points Needed to Clinch: 4
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 99%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 2%
Last Game: W 2-1 at Las Vegas Lights FC
Next Game: 9/22 at Fresno FC, 10 p.m. ET
Portland was put into range of clinching a playoff spot this weekend thanks to San Antonio’s loss on Wednesday night and has a couple of routes to get there thanks to its win total of 16, which would book T2 a first trip to the postseason with a draw against Fresno FC on Saturday night, should San Antonio fall to Saint Louis FC earlier on Saturday night. If San Antonio draws, then Portland would need to take victory to book its place, while if San Antonio picks up a road victory then T2 will have to wait a fraction longer for its chance to clinch.

6. Swope Park Rangers
Current Record:
 14-10-7, 49pts
Maximum Points Available: 58
Points Needed to Clinch: 7
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 91%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: W 2-0 vs. San Antonio FC
Next Game: 9/22 at Tulsa Roughnecks FC, 8 p.m. ET
The Rangers got the victory they needed against San Antonio FC to push their playoff odds above 90 percent on Wednesday night and will be hoping Saint Louis can match their victory this Saturday which would potentially send SPR to the brink of a playoff berth. Should STLFC defeat San Antonio and Swope Park pick up a road victory against Tulsa Roughnecks FC, the two-time defending Western Conference champion would need only a point from their final two games to ensure a return to the postseason.

7. Saint Louis FC
Current Record:
 12-8-10, 46pts
Maximum Points Available: 58
Points Needed to Clinch: 10
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 73%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: D 1-1 at Real Monarchs SLC
Next Game: 9/22 vs. San Antonio FC, 8:30 p.m. ET
Saint Louis will get the chance to both put one foot in the postseason and put a major hit on San Antonio FC’s chances when the sides square off on Saturday night at Toyota Stadium – Saint Louis. STLFC enters on a five-game home winning streak and would put a six-point gap between itself and ninth-place SAFC if it can match the Swope Park Rangers’ victory against San Antonio on Wednesday night. A draw would probably be OK for Saint Louis’ playoff prospects as well, and would certainly work for both Sacramento Republic FC and the Portland Timbers 2, both of which are hoping for San Antonio to drop points as part of their equation to clinch a playoff berth this weekend.

8. Reno 1868 FC
Current Record:
 12-7-9, 45pts
Maximum Points Available: 63
Points Needed to Clinch: 11
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 94%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: 3%
Last Game: W 1-0 vs. LA Galaxy II
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, 10 p.m. ET
Reno benefited greatly from Swope Park’s victory on Wednesday night and will be hoping Saint Louis FC can match it against San Antonio FC this Saturday while it looks to take care of Silver State Cup rival Las Vegas Lights FC. A win for Reno wouldn’t clinch a playoff place, but it would keep the side moving in the right direction for a potential sixth-place finish at the end of the regular season.

9. San Antonio FC
Current Record:
 11-11-7, 43pts
Maximum Points Available: 55
Points Needed to Clinch: 13
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: 43%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 2-0 at Swope Park Rangers
Next Game: at Saint Louis FC, 8:30 p.m. ET
San Antonio’s season could come down to Saturday night’s contest against Saint Louis FC. If it can take victory, even potentially draw to keep the gap to seventh-place Saint Louis at three points, it heads home for three consecutive games at Toyota Field to close out the season with a chance it can talk itself into. If Saint Louis wins on Saturday night, though, and both Swope Park and Reno also take all three points it’s going to be very difficult to navigate a way back for Head Coach Darren Powell’s side.

10. OKC Energy FC
Current Record:
 11-14-5, 38pts
Maximum Points Available: 50
Points Needed to Clinch: 16
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: <1%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: W 3-1 at LA Galaxy II
Next Game: 9/23 vs. Sacramento Republic FC, 7 p.m. ET
OKC Energy FC is going to need a miracle after Saint Louis and Reno’s victories over the past weekend, and could feasibly be mathematically eliminated should it suffer defeat on Sunday evening against Sacramento Republic FC.

11. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Current Record:
 10-15-5, 35pts
Maximum Points Available: 47
Points Needed to Clinch: 21
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: <1%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: D 1-1 vs. Rio Grande Valley FC
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Phoenix Rising FC, 8 p.m. ET
The Switchbacks’ draw moved them closer to mathematical elimination, which could arrive on Saturday whether or not the side finds a way to defeat Phoenix Rising FC.

12. Fresno FC
Current Record:
 8-11-11, 35pts
Maximum Points Available: 47
Points Needed to Clinch: 21
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: <1%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 1-0 vs. Orange County Sc
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Portland Timbers 2, 10 p.m. ET
The Foxes are on the verge of mathematical elimination after their late defeat to Orange County, with the end potentially arriving this Saturday even if the Foxes take victory against the Portland Timbers 2.

13. LA Galaxy II
Current Record:
 9-15-6, 33pts
Maximum Points Available: 45
Points Needed to Clinch: 23
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: <1%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 1-0 at Reno 1868 FC
Next Game: 9/22 vs. Real Monarchs SLC, 10:30 p.m. ET
The Galaxy II are only mathematically alive thanks to their ability to get to 13 wins, with Reno currently sitting on 12, but official elimination is likely right around the corner.

15. Las Vegas Lights FC
Current Record:
 7-15-6, 27pts
Maximum Points Available: 45
Points Needed to Clinch: 29
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Playoffs Odds: <1%
FiveThirtyEight.com USL Cup Odds: <1%
Last Game: L 2-1 vs. Portland Timbers 2
Next Game: 9/22 at Reno 1868 FC, 10 p.m. ET
Lights FC’s six games remaining keeps it mathematically alive, but all that’s really left to play for this season is a chance to throw a wrench into Silver State Cup rival Reno 1868 FC’s postseason plans this Saturday night at Greater Nevada Field.

Officially eliminated: Rio Grande Valley FC, Seattle Sounders FC 2, Tulsa Roughnecks FC

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