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2018 USL Cup Playoffs Roadmap – Tampa Bay Rowdies

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 08/21/18, 2:23PM EDT

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It’s going to be an uphill climb if Tampa Bay is to salvage its postseason expectations


Photo courtesy Matt May / Tampa Bay Rowdies

It’s fair to say things have not turned out the way the Tampa Bay Rowdies may have planned in 2018. After reaching the Eastern Conference Semifinals of the 2017 USL Cup Playoffs, the club was aggressive in its recruitment over the offseason to put together a side that had some predicting at least a top-two finish in the conference standings this fall.

Things started off well enough, as a road victory at North Carolina FC sparked hope to start the season, as did a 3-1-0 start that included a hard-fought loss on the road to Louisville. There was even a good home victory against current Western Conference-leader Real Monarchs SLC in there as well, as the side sat in second place in the Eastern Conference after Week 6 of the season.

Then, everything seemed to fall apart. Defeats to Penn FC and the Richmond Kickers and an early elimination in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup saw Head Coach Stuart Campbell step down in mid-May, and the side hasn’t been able to regenerate, despite numerous midseason additions aimed at kickstarting the season. Now, the side sits five points out of the playoff positions with 11 games to go, and according to fivethirtyeight.com has a five percent chance of a playoff place.

But, to paraphrase Lloyd Christmas, “you're telling me there's a chance.” So, what would the Rowdies need to do over their final 11 games to make a postseason place a possibility?

THE MATH

The numbers are clearly against the Rowdies, but the target they’re aiming for is likely 50 points. That would put the side narrowly ahead of the New York Red Bulls II, whose potential total at the club’s current points-per-game average sits at 49.6, as Head Coach John Wolyniec’s side sits with the eighth-highest potential points in the Eastern Conference.

That means the Rowdies would need 23 points from their final 11 games, or a 7-2-2 record. With seven road games and only four at Al Lang Stadium remaining, the road to that record is going to be made up of three categories of games:

  • Draw if you can, defeat’s not disaster

  • Must get a point, win is a bonus

  • Must-win matchups

With that, here’s a potential road to the postseason for Tampa Bay.

DRAW IF YOU CAN, DEFEAT’S NOT DISASTER


Photo courtesy Matt May / Tampa Bay Rowdies

Sept. 8 at Charleston Battery – There are some tough road trips in the final 11 games, but this visit to the Battery and the other game in this category figure to be the toughest to navigate. Charleston is 8-1-3 at home this season and hasn’t given up a goal to Tampa Bay in the two previous meetings between the sides in 2018.

Sept. 18 at Nashville SC – The Rowdies played to a draw with Nashville when they met at Al Lang Stadium on June 9, but NSC away from home (2-5-5) is a much different proposition from NSC at home (7-1-2). A point would be great here but will be tough to acquire.

MUST GET A POINT, WIN IS A BONUS


Photo courtesy Matt May / Tampa Bay Rowdies

Aug. 22 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – A visit to Highmark Stadium is arguably as daunting as the previous two games we’ve mentioned, but five teams out of 12 have come away with points from the banks of the Monongahela this season (7-2-3), including two sides (Nashville, Charleston) that have taken victory. With an 11-day break to prepare, this is a game the Rowdies need to take a point from but could take three.

Sept. 26 at Indy Eleven – This contest arrives with four games to go in the season, so we’ll see what shape the Rowdies are in at that point, but as of now, it figures that this is a game the Rowdies will need to take a point from, if not a win, with Indy one of the sides Tampa Bay will be trying to chase down during the final stretch.

MUST-WIN MATCHUPS


Photo courtesy Brett Hansbauer / FC Cincinnati

Aug. 25 vs. FC Cincinnati – One of the principal tenets of making the playoffs is to win your home games, and that means the Rowdies are almost certainly going to have to sweep their remaining four contests at Al Lang Stadium. The first of those remaining four is against Eastern Conference-leader FC Cincinnati, making it the toughest win of the set, but Tampa Bay could take inspiration from the fact that it has defeated FCC in all three previous meetings on the waterfront in St. Petersburg.

Sept. 1 at North Carolina – Coming just three weeks after NCFC defeated the Rowdies on their home turf, Tampa Bay’s second visit this season to Sahlen’s Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park sets up as a chance to turn the tables in what will be a playoff six-pointer between the clubs. The Rowdies won here on the opening day of the season, why not this time around?

Sept. 15 vs. ATL UTD 2 – Again, win your home games, especially against a side that currently sits 15th out of 16 teams in the Eastern Conference and that is 0-11-3 away from home going into Week 23’s action.

Sept. 22 vs. Richmond Kickers – Second verse, same as the first. The Kickers defeated the Rowdies at City Stadium earlier this season, too, which should add to the motivation for Tampa Bay to turn the tables on a Richmond side that is 14th out of 16 teams in the Eastern Conference and 1-9-0 away from home so far this season.

Oct. 3 at ATL UTD 2 – Same principal as Sept. 15 applies here, only on the road this time. Atlanta has been better at Coolray Field than on the road this season, certainly, but this is a game the Rowdies must win to keep their playoff surge going.

Oct. 6 vs. Charlotte Independence – At home once again, against a team that could also be fighting for its playoff life if its current streak of four games without a win hasn’t stretched on longer. Got to get the three points here to set up…

Oct. 14 at Bethlehem Steel FC – Final day of the regular season, and it could all come down to a winner-takes-all showdown at Goodman Stadium. If the Rowdies make it this far, they’ll certainly have momentum thanks to at least a four-game undefeated streak. Could Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes come down to its final 90 minutes? At this point, the team has to hope so.

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