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USL Race for the Playoffs – Oct. 4

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/03/17, 4:46PM EDT

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Rowdies, Roughnecks, Republic FC aim at postseason places

Half the places in the 2017 USL Cup Playoffs have been claimed with two weeks to go in the regular season – three in the Eastern Conference, five in the Western Conference – and another three places could be locked down by the end of Wednesday night’s action, as the magic numbers for teams above the red line dwindle.

The game with the potential to influence the most on Wednesday is Orange County SC’s clash with Sacramento Republic FC, which could affect Tulsa Roughnecks FC’s playoff prospects in the night’s other Western Conference game. For the Tampa Bay Rowdies and New York Red Bulls II, meanwhile, a win would mean a lot in terms of their end-of-season position.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Current Record:
 16-6-8, 56pts
Maximum Points Available: 62
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 1.0
Last Game: D 0-0 at Rochester Rhinos
Next Game: 10/7 vs. Charlotte Independence, 7:30 p.m. ET
Louisville clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to the Charleston Battery’s draw on Sunday afternoon against Ottawa Fury FC and now will get to try and rest up as it prepares for the postseason. With absences due to international duty, Saturday’s game with the Charlotte Independence will be a challenge for the host, which will still want to put up a good performance in front of its fans, but the main goal will be to emerge unscathed injury-wise with nothing riding on the result.

2. Charleston Battery
Current Record:
 13-8-9, 48pts
Maximum Points Available: 54
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.0
Last Game: D 1-1 at Ottawa Fury FC
Next Game: 10/7 vs. Harrisburg City Islanders, 7 p.m. ET
Thanks to Heviel Cordoves’ late strike against Ottawa, the Battery returned to the postseason for the seventh consecutive season and now will pay keen attention to Wednesday night’s game between the Tampa Bay Rowdies and New York Red Bulls II, hoping the visitors at Al Lang Stadium can take points off the fourth-place Rowdies and keep the Battery in second. As tight as the race for second is, though, a team as hot as the Harrisburg City Islanders – which is 4-0-1 in its last five games – isn’t necessarily the side you’d want as a visitor, even with Harrisburg having been mathematically eliminated this past weekend.

3. Charlotte Independence
Current Record:
 13-8-9, 48pts
Maximum Points Available: 54
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.2
Last Game: L 1-0 vs. FC Cincinnnati
Next Game: 10/7 at Louisville City FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Independence’s three-game losing streak dropped the side out of second and could eventually move the team into fourth place depending on how the Tampa Bay Rowdies fare on Wednesday night. If there’s a time for anyone to visit Louisville City FC, though, it is now with City having nothing to play for after wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the East. A win at Slugger Field, and Charlotte might not have to return there until a potential Eastern Conference Final in the postseason.

4. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Current Record:
 12-7-10, 46pts
Maximum Points Available: 55
Points Needed to Clinch: 2
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.9
Last Game: D 1-1 vs. Bethlehem Steel FC
Next Game: 10/4 vs. New York Red Bulls II, 7:30 p.m. ET
It’s still win and you’re in for the Rowdies, as they welcome the New York Red Bulls II for their home finale, but the bigger incentive for victory is the chance to move into sole possession of second place in the standings past both Charleston and Charlotte. After New York took a 4-2 victory when the teams met at MSU Soccer Park, there might also be thoughts of revenge on the Rowdies’ minds. With the way the Red Bulls II have been firing offensively of late, and what the trip to Florida has on offer in terms of playoff position, it’s not going to be an easy contest for Tampa Bay.

5. Rochester Rhinos
Current Record:
 11-7-11, 44pts
Maximum Points Available: 53
Points Needed to Clinch: 5
Avg. Finishing Position: 4.8
Last Game: D 0-0 vs. Louisville City FC
Next Game: 10/7 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds, 7 p.m. ET
Once more, the Rhinos were unable to take advantage of dropped points by the teams above them, and the lack of goals for the Rhinos is starting to be a concern in the team’s pursuit of a top-four place. The Rhinos have been held scoreless in each of their past two outings, and now need a victory against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds and some help from elsewhere to have a route to a home playoff game in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

6. FC Cincinnati
Current Record:
 11-9-10, 43pts
Maximum Points Available: 49
Points Needed to Clinch: 6
Avg. Finishing Position: 6.7
Last Game: W 1-0 at Charlotte Independence
Next Game: 10/8 at Ottawa Fury FC, 2 p.m. ET
How big was FCC goalkeeper Mitch Hildebrandt’s save on Friday night to deny the Charlotte Independence’s Jorge Herrera’s stoppage-time penalty kick? Well, Cincinnati is now a 91 percent chance to reach the postseason after that victory and could officially have the finish line in sight when it takes the field against Ottawa Fury FC on Sunday. Should Orlando City B fail to take victory on Saturday night against the New York Red Bulls II, Cincinnati would earn its second consecutive trip to the postseason with a win against the mathematically-eliminated Fury FC on Sunday, which would give it 12 for the season, out of reach mathematically of OCB.

7. Orlando City B
Current Record:
 10-8-12, 42pts
Maximum Points Available: 48
Points Needed to Clinch: 8
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.3
Last Game: W 1-0 at Richmond Kickers
Next Game: 10/7 vs. New York Red Bulls II, 7:30 p.m. ET
Orlando’s seventh road victory of the season gave it a victory it had to have considering results elsewhere, but now the team’s season is looking likely to come down to Saturday’s game against the New York Red Bulls II. Depending on what result New York earns against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Wednesday night, New York could have the chance to clinch with a win against OCB. As such, Saturday is looking like a must-win with a home game against the Rowdies in the final game of the regular season.

8. New York Red Bulls II
Current Record: 
12-12-5, 41pts
Maximum Points Available: 50
Points Needed to Clinch: 7
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.5
Last Game: W 2-0 vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Next Game: 10/4 at Tampa Bay Rowdies, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Red Bulls II’s victory against the Riverhounds on Saturday night set up what is now looking like the defining week of the defending USL Cup champions’ season as it visits Florida with the chance to clinch a place in the USL Cup Playoffs. The math for New York is pretty simple at this point – get either a win or a draw against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Wednesday night and a victory against Orlando City B on Saturday, and the Red Bulls II are going to be back in the postseason thanks to their advantage in wins over OCB.

9. Bethlehem Steel FC
Current Record:
 11-11-7, 40pts
Maximum Points Available: 49
Points Needed to Clinch: 9
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.5
Last Game: D 1-1 at Tampa Bay Rowdies
Next Game: 10/6 at Toronto FC II, 7:30 p.m. ET
Steel FC dropped into ninth place in the standings after the past weekend, but it is still in control of its own destiny with three games to go in the regular season. To keep it that way, victory against Toronto FC II on Friday night is a must and would also ratchet up the pressure on both Orlando City B and the New York Red Bulls II as they go into their showdown on Saturday night.

Eliminated: Harrisburg City Islanders, Saint Louis FC, Pittsburgh Riverhounds, Ottawa Fury FC, Richmond Kickers, Toronto FC II

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Real Monarchs SLC
Current Record:
 19-5-6, 63pts
Maximum Points Available: 69
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 1.0
Last Game: W 3-0 at Reno 1868 FC
Next Game: 10/7 vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2, 9 p.m. ET
After their victory against Reno 1868 FC, the Monarchs only need one point to claim the USL Regular Season Championship when it returns home to host WFC2 at Rio Tinto Stadium on Saturday night. While that would still allow San Antonio FC to pull level on points with Real, the four-win differential going into this week held by the Monarchs is insurmountable for SAFC. That means unless something remarkable is produced by Vancouver, the first silverware of the season will be claimed by a Western Conference team for the first time.

2. Reno 1868 FC
Current Record:
 16-7-7, 55pts
Maximum Points Available: 61
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.3
Last Game: L 3-0 vs. Real Monarchs SLC
Next Game: 10/7 at Orange County SC, 10 p.m. ET
Reno can’t catch the Monarchs anymore after Saturday’s loss and now might do well to hang onto second place in the Western Conference. Sitting with an equal record to the Swope Park Rangers, and a handy advantage in goal differential, Reno will look to win out and hope that San Antonio FC is unable to do the same to negate the game in hand SAFC holds over the other two contenders for the No. 2 seed.

3. Swope Park Rangers
Current Record:
 16-7-7, 55pts
Maximum Points Available: 61
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.5
Last Game: D 2-2 at Rio Grande Valley FC
Next Game: 10/8 at OKC Energy FC, 6 p.m. ET
The Rangers just grabbed a point against the Toros thanks to Kharlton Belmar’s stoppage-time equalizer, but will now have to both better Reno 1868 FC’s record in the final two games of the regular season, and hope for San Antonio FC to falter if it is to claim the No. 2 seed. With OKC Energy FC potentially looking to clinch a playoff spot when the Rangers visit on Sunday, getting a win on the road is going to be a test.

4. San Antonio FC
Current Record:
 15-4-10, 55pts
Maximum Points Available: 64
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 2.5
Last Game: W 2-0 at Tulsa Roughnecks FC
Next Game: 10/7 vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, 8:30 p.m. ET
With three home games to close out the regular season, San Antonio has a clear advantage over both Reno 1868 FC and the Swope Park Rangers down the stretch, with both its rivals heading on the road this weekend. SAFC can go 2-0-1 down the stretch and claim the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, but it will likely get a test in its interconference matchup with the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday night with its Eastern Conference visitor also in hot pursuit of the same spot in its conference.

5. Phoenix Rising FC
Current Record:
 14-8-7, 49pts
Maximum Points Available: 58
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 4.9
Last Game: L 2-0 at Sacramento Republic FC
Next Game: 10/4 vs. Tulsa Roughnecks FC, 10 p.m. ET
Phoenix’s run was bound to come to an end at some point, and Rising FC’s chances are now at 16 percent of a top-four finish at the home playoff game that comes with it when the regular season comes to an end. Winning out might be achievable, though, with Phoenix set for three home games to wrap things up. The toughest of those looks to be on Wednesday night, as Tulsa Roughnecks FC tries to clinch a playoff place of its own, but if Phoenix can take victory, there’s always a chance one of the three teams in front of it could falter and offer an opening to the top four this weekend.

6. Sacramento Republic FC
Current Record:
 13-10-6, 45pts
Maximum Points Available: 54
Points Needed to Clinch: 1
Avg. Finishing Position: 6.6
Last Game: W 2-0 vs. Phoenix Rising FC
Next Game: 10/4 at Orange County SC, 10:30 p.m. ET
Republic FC and its fans drew a big sigh of relief after Saturday’s win against Phoenix Rising FC in Sacramento’s home finale, and results elsewhere couldn’t have fallen much better as well. As a result, Republic FC now needs only a draw against Orange County SC on Wednesday night to book its return to the postseason, and if it manages that, it would also do a favor to Tulsa Roughnecks FC as well.

7. Tulsa Roughnecks FC
Current Record:
 13-12-4, 43pts
Maximum Points Available: 52
Points Needed to Clinch: 3
Avg. Finishing Position: 6.8
Last Game: L 2-0 vs. San Antonio FC
Next Game: 10/4 Phoenix Rising FC, 10 p.m. ET
The Roughnecks couldn’t find their first win against San Antonio FC on Saturday night, but the rest of the night’s results went ideally for the side, as it looks to clinch its first postseason berth. Two paths are available to book a place in the USL Cup Playoffs on Wednesday, with the first being a victory in the USL Game of the Week on ESPN3 against Phoenix Rising FC. If the Roughnecks even manage a draw, though, they can still get in should Orange County SC fail to take victory against Sacramento Republic FC, which would put Tulsa on 44 points and 13 wins and out of reach of both Orange County and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC.

8. OKC Energy FC
Current Record:
 12-11-7, 43pts
Maximum Points Available: 49
Points Needed to Clinch: 3
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.6
Last Game: W 3-0 vs. LA Galaxy II
Next Game: 10/8 vs. Swope Park Rangers, 6 p.m. ET
Energy FC could have claimed a playoff berth by the time it kicks off next if things fall its way over the next few days. A loss for Orange County SC in either of its games this week against Sacramento Republic FC and Reno 1868 FC, or a draw in both, would leave OKC out of reach. A draw or defeat for Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday against Republic FC would do the same for the Switchbacks. If Orange County manages to win both contests, though, Energy FC can still book its place in the playoffs by defeating the Swope Park Rangers on Sunday evening.

9. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Current Record:
 10-12-8, 38pts
Maximum Points Available: 44
Points Needed to Clinch: 13
Avg. Finishing Position: 9.6
Last Game: W 2-1 vs. Orange County SC
Next Game: 10/7 vs. Sacramento Republic FC, 8 p.m. ET
The Switchbacks kept their slim playoff hopes alive and likely doomed Orange County SC at the same time, with their win on Saturday night, but the odds sit at three percent after the rest of the weekend’s results that Colorado Springs will be part of the season. All it can do is win out and hope for a major slip-up or two from either Tulsa Roughnecks FC or OKC Energy FC down the stretch. Anything but a win on Saturday, and the pursuit of the playoffs is over.

10. Orange County SC
Current Record:
 9-10-10, 37pts
Maximum Points Available: 46
Points Needed to Clinch: 13
Avg. Finishing Position: 9.5
Last Game: L 2-1 at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Next Game: 10/4 vs. Sacramento Republic FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
Orange County must win all three of its remaining games, and even that might not be enough to earn a postseason berth. Should the side fall to Republic FC on Wednesday night, with Sacramento looking to clinch its postseason berth, the road to the playoffs will be over for OCSC.

Eliminated: Rio Grande Valley FC, Seattle Sounders FC 2, LA Galaxy II, Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2, Portland Timbers 2

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