EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Current Record: 16-6-7, 55pts
Maximum Points Available: 64
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 1.0
Last Game: L 1-0 at Toronto FC II
Next Game: 9/30 at Rochester Rhinos, 6:05 p.m. ET
Louisville’s surprise loss to Toronto FC II on Wednesday night – who knew Angelo Cavalluzzo was kryptonite to the best attack in the Eastern Conference? – kept the side from sealing the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the first time in its history. One win in the last three games will get City there, though, and the rest of the current top four would certainly appreciate it if that win arrives on Saturday night against the fifth-place Rochester Rhinos.  

2. Charlotte Independence
Current Record: 13-7-9, 48pts
Maximum Points Available: 57
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 2.9
Last Game: L 1-0 at Tampa Bay Rowdies
Next Game: 9/29 vs. FC Cincinnati, 7 p.m. ET
The Independence are in and thanks to the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ draw on Wednesday afternoon are now the favorite again in the race for the No. 2 seed. FC Cincinnati’s arrival on Friday night will be a big test, but it would also be the ideal moment for Charlotte to break its three-game winless streak to put pressure on Charleston and Tampa Bay ahead of their games later in the weekend.

3. Charleston Battery
Current Record: 13-8-8, 47pts
Maximum Points Available: 56
Points Needed to Clinch: 1
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.3
Last Game: L 2-1 at Orlando City B
Next Game: 10/1 at Ottawa Fury FC, 2 p.m. ET
The Battery can clinch a playoff spot before taking to the field again on Sunday; if the Charlotte Independence beat FC Cincinnati on Friday night, then Charleston’s place in the postseason for a seventh consecutive season would be confirmed. If the Independence do take victory, the Battery will certainly want to match it against the almost-eliminated Fury FC to continue their bid for the No. 2 seed.

4. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Current Record: 12-7-9, 45pts
Maximum Points Available: 57
Points Needed to Clinch: 3
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.7
Last Game: D 2-2 at Bethlehem Steel FC
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Bethlehem Steel FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
Letting a lead slip twice in their first game this week against Steel FC also saw the Rowdies lose their path to the No. 2 seed, but the Rowdies will clinch a playoff berth on Saturday night with a victory in the return fixture against Bethlehem at Al Lang Stadium. The win would be the Rowdies’ 13th of the season, putting it out of reach of Orlando City B through the total wins tiebreaker with OCB’s maximum available points standing at 48.

5. Rochester Rhinos
Current Record: 11-7-10, 43pts
Maximum Points Available: 55
Points Needed to Clinch: 6
Avg. Finishing Position: 4.7
Last Game: L 1-0 at Richmond Kickers
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Louisville City FC, 6:05 p.m. ET
The path to the top four is a tricky one for the Rhinos, especially given they’ll be taking on a Louisville side that can not only clinch the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference but will also be wanting to wash the taste of its loss to Toronto on Wednesday night away. If the Rhinos can earn their eighth home win of the season on Saturday, though, they would have a playoff place by the end of the weekend should Orlando City B fall to the Richmond Kickers on Sunday evening.

6. FC Cincinnati
Current Record: 10-9-10, 40pts
Maximum Points Available: 49
Points Needed to Clinch: 9
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.6
Last Game: D 2-2 at Saint Louis FC
Next Game: 9/29 at Charlotte Independence, 7 p.m. ET
Friday night’s game between FCC and the Charlotte Independence is one of the biggest of the weekend in terms of what it means to the overall playoff race, but the boost Cincinnati would get in terms of its own playoff chances with a win can’t be understated. Currently a 74 percent chance to reach the postseason according to SportsClubStats.com, FCC’s odds would ramp up to 96 percent should it take victory at the Sportsplex at Matthews. If other results then fell the right way on Saturday and Sunday – like many others, FCC fans would be rooting for a win by the Richmond Kickers against Orlando City B in particular – a playoff place would be within reach when FCC visits an Ottawa Fury FC side that could be mathematically eliminated on Oct. 8.

7. Bethlehem Steel FC
Current Record: 11-11-6, 39pts
Maximum Points Available: 51
Points Needed to Clinch: 10
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.0
Last Game: D 2-2 vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Next Game: 9/30 at Tampa Bay Rowdies, 7:30 p.m. ET
Steel FC got a point out of its first meeting with the Tampa Bay Rowdies, which in turn moved it ahead of Orlando City B but also reduced its margin for error down the final stretch. If Bethlehem can take something away from its visit to Tampa Bay on Saturday it would remain ahead of Orlando City B in available points, but victories for the Charlotte Independence on Friday night, the Pittsburgh Riverhounds on Saturday afternoon and the Richmond Kickers on Sunday evening would all be welcome for Steel FC fans.

8. Orlando City B
Current Record: 9-8-12, 39pts
Maximum Points Available: 48
Points Needed to Clinch: 10
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.8
Last Game: W 2-1 vs. Charleston Battery
Next Game: 10/1 at Richmond Kickers, 5 p.m. ET
Playing in the penultimate game of the weekend on Sunday evening, OCB will know exactly where things stand before it kicks off against the Richmond Kickers. That could be a double-edged sword, of course, especially if the New York Red Bulls II have managed to claim victory to move ahead of Orlando on Saturday evening. A number of other teams will also be looking on hoping for a Kickers victory as well, with Orlando’s maximum available points total potentially the only thing standing between them and a postseason spot.

9. New York Red Bulls II
Current Record: 11-12-5, 38pts
Maximum Points Available: 50
Points Needed to Clinch: 11
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.9
Last Game: L 4-2 at FC Cincinnati
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds, 4 p.m. ET
The Red Bulls II are still in control of their fate with four games to go and will be interested onlookers on Friday night, when it will be hoping for a Charlotte Independence victory that would allow it to overtake FC Cincinnati on Saturday. Regardless of any other result this weekend, though, a win for New York against the Riverhounds on its home turf would be huge, boosting the side’s playoff chances to almost 80 percent.

10. Saint Louis FC
Current Record: 9-12-8, 35pts
Maximum Points Available: 44
Points Needed to Clinch: 14
Avg. Finishing Position: 10.6
Last Game: D 2-2 vs. FC Cincinnati
Next Game: 9/30 at Harrisburg City Islanders, 7 p.m. ET
It is do-or-die time for Saint Louis, which could be mathematically eliminated if it fails to take victory on Saturday night against the City Islanders. Even with a win, the road to the playoffs needs a heck of a lot to go right for STLFC, which is now only an eight-percent chance to reach the postseason.

11. Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Current Record: 8-10-11, 35pts
Maximum Points Available: 44
Points Needed to Clinch: 14
Avg. Finishing Position: 10.7
Last Game: L 3-2 at Bethlehem Steel FC
Next Game: 9/30 at New York Red Bulls II, 4 p.m. ET
The Riverhounds’ playoff odds are basically the same as Saint Louis’ going into the weekend, but in Pittsburgh’s favor is that it has a chance to gain ground on one of the teams it is chasing for a place in the playoffs when it visits the New York Red Bulls II. If the Riverhounds take victory, their playoff odds would bump up to 26 percent, and it would also provide a boost to Saint Louis as well.

12. Harrisburg City Islanders
Current Record: 9-14-7, 34pts
Maximum Points Available: 40
Points Needed to Clinch: 15
Avg. Finishing Position: 12.0
Last Game: W 1-0 vs. Ottawa Fury FC
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Saint Louis FC, 7 p.m. ET
Harrisburg’s third win in its last four games moved it ahead of vanquished Ottawa Fury FC on Wednesday night, but it would still take a remarkable sequence of events for the City Islanders to be part of the postseason. Even with another win against Saint Louis FC on Saturday – which would also potentially end STLFC’s postseason hopes as well – Harrisburg could be mathematically eliminated by the end of the weekend with only two games remaining in its schedule.

13. Ottawa Fury FC
Current Record: 7-10-12, 33pts
Maximum Points Available: 42
Points Needed to Clinch: 16
Avg. Finishing Position: 12.0
Last Game: L 1-0 at Harrisburg City Islanders
Next Game: 10/1 vs. Charleston Battery, 2 p.m. ET
The death-knell almost certainly tolled on Fury FC’s playoff hopes on Wednesday night, as the side struggled to a 1-0 defeat to a 10-man Harrisburg City Islanders side. Ottawa is now only a 1.1 percent chance to reach the postseason, with mathematical elimination possible on Sunday as it hosts a Charleston Battery side that is gunning for the No. 2-seed in the Eastern Conference.

Eliminated: Richmond Kickers, Toronto FC II

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Real Monarchs SLC
Current Record: 18-5-6, 60pts
Maximum Points Available: 69
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 1.1
Last Game: W 2-0 at Sacramento Republic FC
Next Game: 9/30 at Reno 1868 FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
Thanks to a big assist from Toronto FC II, and a big road win of their own on Wednesday night, the Monarchs are four results away from claiming the USL Regular Season Championship on Saturday night. Real would need all three of Louisville City FC, San Antonio FC and the Swope Park Rangers to fail to take victories on the road earlier in the evening, but should that occur, a victory against Reno 1868 FC would see the Monarchs take the first silverware of the season. Regardless of any of those other results, though, a win against Reno or a Sacramento Republic FC win or tie against Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday night would clinch a first home playoff game for Real.

2. Reno 1868 FC
Current Record: 16-6-7, 55pts
Maximum Points Available: 64
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 2.8
Last Game: W 6-1 vs. Portland Timbers 2
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Real Monarchs SLC, 10 p.m. ET
Reno’s desired results on Wednesday night came half-true thanks to Toronto FC II, but now, 1868 FC must win against Real Monarchs SLC to keep any hope alive of the USL Regular Season Championship. As important as that would be, a victory would also ensure the one-point lead Reno holds on the charging Swope Park Rangers is maintained through the weekend, as it looks to hold onto a top-two position through the end of the weekend.

3. Swope Park Rangers
Current Record: 16-7-6, 54pts
Maximum Points Available: 63
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.3
Last Game: W 3-0 vs. LA Galaxy II
Next Game: 9/30 at Rio Grande Valley FC, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Rangers bumped into third place thanks to another emphatic victory on Wednesday night against the LA Galaxy II and now sit at even odds with San Antonio FC in terms of potential seeding as a result. With only a one-percent chance of taking top spot, the Rangers will be looking for their first consecutive victory on Saturday night when they visit Rio Grande Valley FC. They’ll also be hoping Real Monarchs SLC can get some kind of result against Reno 1868 FC, which would leave Swope Park in second place with two games to go for the current top three.

4. San Antonio FC
Current Record: 14-4-10, 52pts
Maximum Points Available: 64
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 3.3
Last Game: L 1-0 vs. Rio Grande Valley FC
Next Game: 9/30 at Tulsa Roughnecks FC, 8 p.m. ET
San Antonio still has a game in hand on the top three going into the weekend and would certainly welcome a victory by the Monarchs as it visits Reno to keep the chances of a top-two finish within reach. Seeing Phoenix Rising FC’s winning streak come to an end in Sacramento on Saturday night, even via a draw, would also be good news for SAFC, as Phoenix has moved only four points back of fourth with four games to go.

5. Phoenix Rising FC
Current Record: 14-7-7, 49pts
Maximum Points Available: 61
Points Needed to Clinch: IN
Avg. Finishing Position: 4.5
Last Game: W 2-0 at Portland Timbers 2
Next Game: 9/30 at Sacramento Republic FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
With its playoff place in hand after Wednesday night’s win in Portland, there’s still plenty to play for on Saturday night, as the goal now becomes chasing down a top-four finish and a home playoff game. SportsClubStats rates Rising FC’s chances of accomplishing that at 36 percent, but if it can keep its five-game winning streak going and get some help from Tulsa Roughnecks FC against San Antonio FC, the momentum Phoenix is carrying could be enough to get it there.

6. Tulsa Roughnecks FC
Current Record: 13-11-4, 43pts
Maximum Points Available: 55
Points Needed to Clinch: 6
Avg. Finishing Position: 6.3
Last Game: W 1-0 vs. LA Galaxy II
Next Game: 9/30 vs. San Antonio FC, 8 p.m. ET
The Roughnecks are in a position where a victory against San Antonio FC on Saturday night could be enough to earn a place in the playoffs, with the other game that will be key to this set to kick off at the same time, as Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC plays host to Orange County SC. With a win for the Switchbacks, and Tulsa moving to 14 wins with victory against San Antonio, the Roughnecks would be out of reach of Orange County through the total wins tiebreaker and into the playoffs for the first time.

7. Sacramento Republic FC
Current Record: 12-10-6, 42pts
Maximum Points Available: 54
Points Needed to Clinch: 8
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.2
Last Game: L 2-0 vs. Real Monarchs SLC
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Phoenix Rising FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
There’s still no reason to think Republic FC won’t be part of the postseason field after Wednesday night’s loss to Real Monarchs SLC, but the chances of a home playoff game are pretty much over. With Phoenix Rising FC coming into Papa Murphy’s Park on Saturday, another big test awaits as Sacramento tries to build momentum. The top four in the Western Conference would certainly appreciate if Republic FC can earn a draw, if not a win, to knock down Rising FC’s pursuit of a home playoff game.

8. OKC Energy FC
Current Record: 11-11-7, 40pts
Maximum Points Available: 49
Points Needed to Clinch: 10
Avg. Finishing Position: 7.8
Last Game: W 3-1 at Sacramento Republic FC
Next Game: 10/1 vs. LA Galaxy II, 6 p.m. ET
Energy FC’s victory against Republic FC last Saturday put it in pole position to claim a playoff place, but now the chance to move into the No. 7-seed could be there for the taking if Sacramento can’t come out of its recent downturn. SportsClubStats rates Energy FC a 25-percent chance to finish seventh going into the weekend, but OKC will know if it has a chance to jump Sacramento by the time it kicks off on Sunday evening against the LA Galaxy II.

9. Orange County SC
Current Record: 9-9-10, 37pts
Maximum Points Available: 49
Points Needed to Clinch: 13
Avg. Finishing Position: 9.0
Last Game: D 0-0 at Real Monarchs SLC
Next Game: 9/30 at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, 8 p.m. ET
Rated a 23.5-percent chance to reach the playoffs, a win is essential for Orange County as it visits Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday night, and then, it will be hoping to see either Sacramento Republic FC or OKC Energy FC falter to open up the door wider to a return to the postseason. With the Switchbacks essentially playing for their playoff lives, though, it’s going to be a tall order at Weidner Field.

10. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Current Record: 9-12-8, 35pts
Maximum Points Available: 44
Points Needed to Clinch: 15
Avg. Finishing Position: 10.0
Last Game: L 3-1 vs. Swope Park Rangers
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Orange County SC, 8 p.m. ET
There’s no way around the fact that the Switchbacks’ season rests on the result of Saturday night’s visit from Orange County SC. With a win, Colorado Springs’ chances of reaching the playoffs would still only rise to 7.8 percent, but any other result could see the side mathematically eliminated by the end of the weekend.

11. Rio Grande Valley FC
Current Record: 9-13-7, 34pts
Maximum Points Available: 43
Points Needed to Clinch: 16
Avg. Finishing Position: 10.9
Last Game: W 1-0 at San Antonio FC
Next Game: 9/30 vs. Swope Park Rangers, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Toros’ are still just mathematically alive, but their result against the Swope Park Rangers will be much more important to the teams in the top four of the standings than for RGVFC itself. After sinking San Antonio a week ago, SAFC will be hoping the Toros can do the same to Swope Park, which enters on a three-game winning streak.

12. Seattle Sounders FC 2
Current Record: 9-16-4, 31pts
Maximum Points Available: 40
Points Needed to Clinch: 19
Avg. Finishing Position: 11.9
Last Game: L 1-0 vs. Phoenix Rising FC
Next Game: 10/7 at Tulsa Roughnecks FC, 8 p.m. ET
S2 doesn’t see action again until Oct. 7, when it visits Tulsa Roughnecks FC. With only 40 points available as the side’s maximum total, the chances are it will be mathematically eliminated by the time that game arrives.

Eliminated: LA Galaxy II, Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2, Portland Timbers 2