Saturday, December 10, 2005
LEIPZIG, Germany - There will be no early Christmas for Bruce Arena and his players.
The magician who performed some escape acts during the dazzling but long preliminary opening of the FIFA World Cup draw certainly did not have the Americans in mind when the issue of avoiding some of the world's heavyweights became the overriding concern.
Italy, the Czech Republic, Ghana and the United States will not qualify as the so-called group of death, but it's doubtful anyone in this foursome is jumping for joy after being grouped together Friday.
Arena has said repeatedly that there was no point in worrying, hoping and wishing because everyone would be in a group of death, as deep as the 2006 version of the World Cup that will open June 9 in Munich, when host Germany faces Costa Rica.
Arena is probably right. Instead he, and chief assistant and main scout Glenn Myernick - a Tampa Bay Rowdie in the early 1980s - will be spending all their energies preparing for Game 1 on June 12, when they'll play the Czech Republic in the northwestern industrial and absolutely soccer mad city of Gelsenkirchen, home of powerhouse Schalke '04.
They have to hope the citizenry of Gelsenkirchen will take kindly to the underdogs, who in 1990 lost 5-1 to what was then unified Czechoslovakia.
Some will say the Czechs have peaked, their great team having bowed out of Euro 2004 in Portugal at the quarterfinal stage, and then got to Germany on the basis of a two-game playoff against Norway, after finishing as runners-up to Holland in regular group play.
But the Czech Republic is No. 2 in the FIFA world rankings, and many thought it could have been, perhaps should have been, seeded ahead of Spain.
So the task, if not Herculean, is pretty massive nonetheless.
In Chelsea's Petr Cech, the Czechs have arguably one of the world's great goalkeepers. In Pavel Nedved, they have one of the best attacking playmakers, voted Europe's player of the year while starring for Italian champion Juventus in 2004. Up front they have 6-foot-7 man-mountain striker Jan Koller (although currently injured) and wily Tomasv Rosicky, both stars in the German Bundesliga.
So why all the emphasis on the Czechs?
Well, for starters, it is the opening game, and few teams in the history of the World Cup have advanced to the second round after losing the first game - especially when the second opponent a team such as No. 12 Italy: a three-time world champion, a 1-0 winner against the U.S. in Italia '90, the world's most irritating team to attack against, and a team that basically every coach secretly hopes to avoid.
Arena would never admit to that, but no one will cherish the thought and welcome the challenge of overcoming the "catenaccio specialist" - a virtually impenetrable defensive style of play while having to shut down Francesco Totti, Roma's brilliant scoring playmaker; Juventus' Alessandro Del Piero; Inter Milan's irascible Christina Vieri; and a slew of other stars.
Italy has underachieved of late, bowing out in Korea 2002 in a controversial game against the host South Koreans and failing to escape group play in Euro 2004. But the Italians rebounded well in World Cup qualifying en route to their group's title. No matter what, they will always be, along with Brazil and Germany, eternal favorites to make it to the final.
Those are steep mountains, making No. 50 Ghana, one of the World Cup's five rookies, just a molehill.
By the time the No. 8 Americans get to their third game June 22 in Nuremberg, they might already find themselves in a deep hole. The Ghanaians will be no pushovers. In midfielder Michael Essien, they have a brilliant all-around midfielder, but it will be too much to expect the Chelsea star to put the West Africans into the knockout stages on his own. Experience counts at the World Cup, and Ghana's has been mostly at the under-17 level.
It is experience that might be so valuable to Arena. Kasey Keller, Claudio Reyna, Brian McBride, and even youngsters Landon Donovan and DeMarcus Beasley have it. They have been there, and Arena is the first American coach to take a team to two consecutive World Cup finals. He has admitted past mistakes and lessons learned, and he is a man at ease with an unquestionable legacy when he decides to leave. He will do his best to add to his résumé.
So, where does that leave the Yanks, as they will be often referred to?
It all goes back to basics. Upset the Czechs; worry about the rest later. The Eastern Europeans and the Italians will be favorites, just as Portugal and Poland were in the Americans' formidable group in Korea '02, but the Portuguese are still reeling from the opening-game 3-2 upset loss to the Americans that basically knocked them out and put the U.S. on cruise control to the next round.
Merry Christmas, U.S.
GROUP E FIRST ROUND SCHEDULE
MONDAY, JUNE 12
At Gelsenkirchen, Germany
United States vs. Czech Republic
At Hanover, Germany
Italy vs. Ghana
SATURDAY, JUNE 17
At Kaiserslautern, Germany
Italy vs. United States
At Cologne, Germany
Czech Republic vs. Ghana
THURSDAY, JUNE 22
At Hamburg, Germany
Czech Republic vs. Italy
At Nuremberg, Germany
Ghana vs. United States
REST OF THE FIELD - GROUP BREAKDOWNS
Group A
TEAMS: Costa Rica, Ecuador, Germany, Poland
FAVORITES TO ADVANCE: Germany, Poland
NEED TO KNOW: For Jurgen Klinsmann and his German "manschaft," the danger is simply getting too excited about the opening game June 9 in Munich against minnow Costa Rica.
There are no two ways about it. The draw was kind to the hosts, which often is the case. The Germans, who can focus with the best of them and whose effort is never questioned, are the group favorites and will win this group easily. Second place is wide open, but there's an obvious home-continent advantage to Poland.
Interestingly, all four teams played in Korea/Japan: Experience is abundant, jitters should not be an issue, and the best teams should win with no trouble. Put your money on the Germans and Poles to reach the next round.
Group B
TEAMS: England, Paraguay, Sweden, Trinidad and Tobago
FAVORITES TO ADVANCE: England, Sweden
NEED TO KNOW: By the time Sven-Goran Eriksson's England squad meets his home country Sweden on June 20 in Cologne, all that might be at stake is the question of first place and a favorable draw into the round of 16. England will have no easy time in its opener against Paraguay on June 10 in Frankfurt, but David Beckman, Steve Gerard, Frank Lampard, Michael Owen and the rest will simply be too strong, experienced and determined to show they deserved their first seed. They will show up like contenders. The English team won a tough qualifying group in a race that went down to the wire with Poland, and the real England might finally show up at the World Cup.
Sweden, never brilliant but always reliable, is one of Europe's most experienced teams and is a perennial World Cup participant. The Swedes will be too much for newbies T&T, who will be just happy to be there. The Trinidadians will have to battle Paraguay in the second game knowing that a win or even a tie might get them through, assuming England overcomes the South Americans in the first game. In Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Henrik Larsson, Sweden has a great striking partnership and will command second place in the group.
Group C
TEAMS: Argentina, Holland, Ivory Coast, Serbia-Montenegro
FAVORITES TO ADVANCE: Argentina, Holland
NEED TO KNOW: Some people are calling this the group of death. That's a stretch. If Serbia was the former Yugoslavia, that would be a fair assessment. The simple truth is Serbia is a new country and although no pushover, it was the lowest-ranked European team to qualify.
This will simply be a two-horse race between old rivals Holland and Argentina. Both are title contenders. They last met in 1978, when Argentina beat the Dutch 2-1 in the final in Argentina. The Dutch have yet to win a World Cup, and like the Argentines, they have an excess of riches from the midfield on.
Serbia-Montenegro did well in winning its qualifying group, relegating Spain to a surprising runner-up spot, but like newcomer Ivory Coast, it will simply not have enough. Ivory Coast's game will be centered on its "Force of Nature," Didier Drogba of Chelsea. He is a national hero in the small West African country, and he will shoulder the load for his team.
Group D
TEAMS: Angola, Iran, Mexico, Portugal
FAVORITES TO ADVANCE: Portugal, Mexico
NEED TO KNOW: Portugal could not ask for a kinder draw. Knocked out in Korea/Japan by the upstart Americans in the opening game, the beaten finalists of Euro 2004 have a golden chance to not only redeem itself but also to cruise to the top.
The Portuguese play their former colony Angola in the first game, and emotion aside, it will simply be no contest for Luis Figo, Cristiano Ronaldo, Deco and Co. The West Africans are the surprise team in the Cup, having arrived at the expense of traditional power Nigeria. Their players toil in the lower reaches of the Portuguese league, and this will simply be an experience for them.
Not the case for Mexico. The Mexicans, so often present and so often disappointing, are seeded a little too generously. And if they take care of Iran, which they should be capable of doing, they will meet Portugal in the last game for what could be a battle for pride and first place. That match might also decide the unenviable task of figuring out who plays Argentina or Holland in the round of 16.
Group F
TEAMS: Australia, Brazil, Croatia, Japan
FAVORITES TO ADVANCE: Brazil, Croatia
NEED TO KNOW: Brazil and its fans picked as their home base Cologne, a city well-known as a good party host. It will suit the Samba-dancing, drum-beating Brazilians just fine because for the second World Cup in a row, the group stage will be a piece of cake. The Brazilians are the prohibitive favorites to win the World Cup, and Coach Carlos Alberto Parreira's biggest tasks will be providing motivation and figuring out which two players to leave out from the seven-man midfield/forward line.
A veritable Murderer's Row if soccer ever had one: Kaka, Robinho, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Ardriano, Juninho, Ricardo Oliviera. Not one of them is a defensive player. The two or three on the bench can start for just about everyone else in the tournament, bar Argentina and Holland. No point in talking about the Brazilian defense. It will be a wide-open race for the runner-up spot, with Croatia having a slight edge against the quick but still too eager Japanese and the athletic but inexperienced Australians, who return to Germany for their first World Cup since 1974.
Group G
TEAMS: France, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo
FAVORITES TO ADVANCE: Switzerland, France
NEED TO KNOW: Normally it would be easy to call France a huge favorite. The French will arrive in Germany with that status, but they are a spent force. They struggled to win their qualifying group, which included runner-up Switzerland, Ireland and Israel. Any one of those nations could have qualified for the World Cup on the last day of qualifying. Arguably the best team in the world the past 10 years, France has to get Zinedine Zidane, Lilian Thuram and Claude Makelele, all back from international retirement, to get cranked up again to help Thierry Henry, the great Arsenal goal-scoring machine.
Much will ride on their opening-game showing against qualifying group rival Switzerland. The Swiss will be no easy proposition, and in defeating 2002 World Cup third-place finishers Turkey, they are for real. The Swiss are a strong, physical team that has matured tactically during the past eight years throughout their entire system - from the under-17 squad on up. Rate this game a toss-up, and the winner will go on to take the group.
South Korea will be full of enthusiasm again, but this time they will be missing the hysterical support of 50,000 red-clad countrymen, who were hugely responsible for surging them forward. Togo is arguably the weakest of its continent's four newcomers, and getting a single point will be a major achievement.
Group H
TEAMS: Saudi Arabia, Spain, Tunisia, Ukraine
FAVORITES TO ADVANCE: Ukraine, Spain
NEED TO KNOW: Spain was an undeservedly seeded team - perennial favorites to win it all but perennial underachievers when it comes to the finals. The Spanish have qualified for every World Cup since 1974 but have yet to make it past the quarterfinals. Still reeling from Portugal's knockout punch from Euro 2004, they struggled to find their form in qualifying, taking second to surprising Serbia-Montenegro before having to take on Slovakia in the two-game playoff series. Talent is not Spain's problem. Yet, the dark horse in this group, Ukraine, is equally talented.
The Ukrainians are in the Cup for the first time but in Andriy Shevchenko, they have one of the world's truly great strikers. And he can win a match on his own. They qualified by winning a group that included Euro 2004 champs Greece and frequent World Cup finalist Denmark. Any team taking Ukraine lightly will pay a heavy price.
Tunisia is the most experienced African team. The current African champions' ball-control skills can make life miserable for many teams, but they probably will be able to do no better than beating their Arab-league member Saudi Arabia (at the finals for the first time since USA 1994). The Tunisians will be no match for Spain or Ukraine.
